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What will be the outcome of Iran-China oil export negotiations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased export agreements • 25%
Decreased export agreements • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official announcements from Iran or China or credible news reports
Story
Iran Exports Nearly 3 Million Barrels of Oil from China for First Time Since 2018, Potentially Raising $1 Billion
Jan 11, 2025, 01:00 PM
Iran has successfully exported nearly 3 million barrels of oil from storage facilities in China, marking the first instance of such exports since the oil was stored there in 2018. The move comes as Iran seeks to raise funds, potentially to support its allied militia groups in the Middle East. The oil, part of a larger stockpile of 25 million barrels held in Chinese ports, has been a point of contention between Iran and China due to U.S. sanctions. The export follows negotiations between Tehran and Beijing, with the oil being shipped out after China approved the move in December. The sales of this oil could generate up to $1 billion for Iran, amidst concerns from Western diplomats that the funds might be used to finance Iran's militias.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Maintain current level • 25%
Ban imports • 25%
Increase imports • 25%
Decrease imports • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sold to another country • 25%
Sold to China • 25%
Sanctions remain unchanged • 25%
New sanctions are imposed • 25%
Sanctions are partially lifted • 25%
Sanctions are fully lifted • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%