Market
What will be the outcome of Grenell's Venezuela mission by end of 2025?
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Donald Trump•Richard Allen Grenell•Special Missions•Venezuela•North Korea•Grenell•Germany•National Intelligence•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official reports from the U.S. government or Venezuelan government
Story
Trump Appoints Richard Grenell Envoy for Missions in Venezuela, North Korea
Dec 15, 2024, 12:02 AM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Richard Allen Grenell as the Presidential Envoy for Special Missions, stating that "Ric will serve in the hottest spots around the world, including Venezuela and North Korea." Grenell, who previously served as U.S. Ambassador to Germany and acting Director of National Intelligence, will be tasked with addressing some of the world's most challenging diplomatic issues. The appointment of Grenell underscores Trump's intent to address international conflicts proactively.
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Relations worsen • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Initial agreements only • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic Relations Improved • 25%
Peace Agreement Signed • 25%
Relations Deteriorate • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
No progress • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Formal agreement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Maduro goes into exile • 25%
Maduro is removed but stays in Venezuela • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Talks initiated but no agreement • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
No mission conducted • 25%
Relations Deteriorate • 25%
Peace Agreement Signed • 25%
Diplomatic Relations Improved • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%