Market
What will be the outcome of China-Lithuania diplomatic tensions by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolved Amicably • 25%
Continued Tensions • 25%
Escalated to EU Level • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from both governments or major international news outlets
Story
Lithuania Expels Three Chinese Diplomats as 'Persona Non Grata' on November 29
Dec 2, 2024, 07:57 AM
Lithuania expelled three Chinese diplomatic staff members on November 29, citing violations of international and Lithuanian laws. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry declared the individuals 'persona non grata' and demanded their departure. The decision comes amid strained relations between the two nations, exacerbated by Lithuania's support for Taiwan and alleged breaches of the one-China principle. China strongly condemned the move, labeling it as provocative and unjustified, and warned of potential countermeasures. Beijing has called on Lithuania to stop actions undermining China's sovereignty and expressed hope that Lithuania's incoming government will work towards improving bilateral ties.
View original story
Similar markets
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened EU-China relations • 25%
Deteriorated EU-China relations • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Strengthening ties • 25%
Further distancing • 25%
Unclear policy • 25%
Maintaining current stance • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic downgrading • 25%
Military exercises near Lithuania • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
Diplomatic breakdown • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%