Market
What will be the future of diplomatic relations between Russia and Poland by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Official statements from either government or credible news reports
Story
Russia to Close Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg on January 10; Expels Diplomats Amid Espionage Row
Dec 5, 2024, 03:12 PM
On December 5, Russia announced the closure of Poland's Consulate General in St. Petersburg in response to Poland's decision to shut down the Russian consulate in Poznan. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the Polish consulate would cease operations starting January 10, 2025. The closure is linked to espionage accusations. Additionally, Russia declared three diplomats from the Polish consulate in St. Petersburg as personae non gratae, requiring them to leave the country. This move escalates the diplomatic tensions between the two countries. In retaliation, Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski threatened to close all remaining Russian consular offices in Poland if "sabotage and terrorist acts continue."
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Status quo • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Full normalization • 25%
Partial normalization • 25%
No normalization • 25%
Other • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Severance of relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resolved diplomatically • 25%
Escalated to EU intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unclear or mixed signals • 25%
Exhumation agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%