Market
How will Lithuania-China tensions impact EU-China relations by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened EU-China relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated EU-China relations • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Official EU statements or credible news reports on EU-China diplomatic relations
Story
Lithuania Expels Three Chinese Embassy Staff on November 29, Citing Vienna Convention Violations; China Warns of Countermeasures
Dec 2, 2024, 06:56 AM
Lithuania has expelled three staff members from the Chinese mission, declaring them persona non grata due to activities that violate the Vienna Convention and Lithuanian law. The expulsion occurred on November 29, as confirmed by Lithuania's Foreign Ministry. This move could heighten tensions between Lithuania and China, especially as the incoming Lithuanian prime minister has indicated a willingness to restore diplomatic relations with Beijing. In response, China condemned the expulsion and warned of potential countermeasures, urging Lithuania to cease actions that undermine its sovereignty and diplomatic commitments. No comments have been issued from the Chinese mission in Lithuania regarding the situation.
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Other Outcome • 25%
Continued Tensions • 25%
Escalated to EU Level • 25%
Resolved Amicably • 25%
Maintain Current Stance • 25%
Further Deterioration • 25%
Strengthen Ties • 25%
Unclear/Other • 25%
Military Posturing • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Action • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%