Market
What will be the impact on military readiness after reinstatement of service members by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved readiness • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased readiness • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
Reports from the Department of Defense or major defense analysis publications
Story
Trump to Reinstate Over 8,400 Troops Fired Over Vaccine Mandate, With Back Pay
Jan 27, 2025, 02:28 PM
President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order today reinstating over 8,400 service members who were discharged under President Biden's COVID-19 vaccine mandates for refusing the vaccine. The executive order directs Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to reinstate all active and reserve members who were dismissed for vaccine refusal, restoring their previous ranks and providing full back pay and benefits. "Unjustly expelled service members will return," Trump stated. This decision fulfills a campaign promise and is being hailed as a victory for those who opposed the military's vaccine mandates.
View original story
Similar markets
No significant change • 25%
Decreased readiness • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
Improved readiness • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
1,000 to 3,999 • 25%
Less than 1,000 • 25%
4,000 to 7,999 • 25%
8,000 or more • 25%
Increase • 25%
Data Not Available • 25%
No Change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
10,000 to 30,000 • 25%
30,001 to 50,000 • 25%
More than 50,000 • 25%
8,000 and above • 25%
Less than 2,000 • 25%
2,000 to 4,999 • 25%
5,000 to 7,999 • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
More than 30,000 • 25%
10,000 to 20,000 • 25%
20,001 to 30,000 • 25%
Q4 2025 • 25%
Q2 2025 • 25%
Q3 2025 • 25%
Q1 2025 • 25%
Mostly positive • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
Reinstated without back pay • 25%
None reinstated • 25%
Some reinstated with partial back pay • 25%
All reinstated with full back pay • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%