Market
Will legal challenges arise regarding the reinstatement of service members by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Court records or major news outlets reporting on legal proceedings
Story
Trump to Reinstate Over 8,400 Troops Fired Over Vaccine Mandate, With Back Pay
Jan 27, 2025, 02:28 PM
President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order today reinstating over 8,400 service members who were discharged under President Biden's COVID-19 vaccine mandates for refusing the vaccine. The executive order directs Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to reinstate all active and reserve members who were dismissed for vaccine refusal, restoring their previous ranks and providing full back pay and benefits. "Unjustly expelled service members will return," Trump stated. This decision fulfills a campaign promise and is being hailed as a victory for those who opposed the military's vaccine mandates.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
1,000 to 3,999 • 25%
8,000 or more • 25%
4,000 to 7,999 • 25%
Less than 1,000 • 25%
All reinstated with full back pay • 25%
Some reinstated with partial back pay • 25%
None reinstated • 25%
Reinstated without back pay • 25%
Mostly positive • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mixed • 25%
8,000 and above • 25%
Less than 2,000 • 25%
2,000 to 4,999 • 25%
5,000 to 7,999 • 25%
Overturned • 33%
Upheld • 33%
Modified • 34%
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Less than 10,000 • 25%
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20,001 to 30,000 • 25%