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What will be the impact on military readiness after reinstatement by Dec 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved readiness • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased readiness • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
Reports from the Department of Defense and independent military analysts
Story
Trump to Reinstate 8,000 Military Members Fired Over COVID-19 Vaccine With Full Back Pay
Jan 20, 2025, 05:34 PM
President Donald Trump, in his inaugural address, announced plans to reinstate military service members who were discharged for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Trump stated that he would issue an executive order this week to bring back these approximately 8,000 troops with full back pay. This move is part of a broader set of military policy priorities outlined by Trump, which also include rebuilding the military and avoiding unnecessary wars. Trump's defense secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, has similarly criticized the dismissals and promised to apologize to and reintegrate those affected. The mandate, enforced by the Defense Department from August 2021 to January 2023, led to the discharge of about 8,000 troops. Despite the small percentage of the total military force, conservative lawmakers have argued that these dismissals impacted force readiness.
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10,000 to 20,000 • 25%
20,001 to 30,000 • 25%
More than 30,000 • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
Marines • 25%
Army • 25%
Navy • 25%
Air Force • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Q2 2025 • 25%
Q1 2025 • 25%
Q3 2025 • 25%
Q4 2025 • 25%
30,001 to 50,000 • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
More than 50,000 • 25%
10,000 to 30,000 • 25%
Decreased military budget • 25%
Increased military budget • 25%
Introduction of new DEI initiatives • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
No change in recruitment • 25%
Decrease in recruitment • 25%
Significant increase in recruitment • 25%
Moderate increase in recruitment • 25%
Policy changes under consideration • 25%
Major policy overhaul • 25%
Minor procedural updates • 25%
No changes • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Provision is overturned by court • 25%
Provision is removed • 25%
Provision is amended • 25%
Provision remains unchanged • 25%