Market
How many service members will be reinstated by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 1,000 • 25%
1,000 to 3,999 • 25%
4,000 to 7,999 • 25%
8,000 or more • 25%
Official announcements from the Department of Defense
Story
Trump to Sign Order Reinstating 8,400 Service Members With Back Pay and Prior Rank
Jan 27, 2025, 11:43 AM
President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order to reinstate over 8,400 service members who were discharged from the military for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine. The order will allow these service members to request reinstatement, restore them to their prior rank, and provide them with back pay and benefits, as well as apologies. The move fulfills a campaign promise made by Trump, who criticized the Biden administration's vaccine mandate that led to the dismissal of these troops between 2021 and 2023. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has supported this initiative. Only 43 of the discharged troops had sought to rejoin under the previous administration after the mandate was repealed in 2023.
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Similar markets
5,000 to 7,999 • 25%
8,000 and above • 25%
2,000 to 4,999 • 25%
Less than 2,000 • 25%
10,000 to 20,000 • 25%
20,001 to 30,000 • 25%
More than 30,000 • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
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10,000 to 30,000 • 25%
30,001 to 50,000 • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
Yes • 50%
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2,000 to 3,999 • 25%
4,000 and above • 25%
Less than 500 • 25%
500 to 1,999 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Majority oppose • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Improved readiness • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
Decreased readiness • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Not completed by December 31, 2025 • 25%
By September 30, 2025 • 25%
By June 30, 2025 • 25%
By December 31, 2025 • 25%
