Market
What will be the outcome of the executive order to reinstate discharged military members by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
All reinstated with full back pay • 25%
Some reinstated with partial back pay • 25%
None reinstated • 25%
Reinstated without back pay • 25%
Official statements from the Department of Defense and media reports
Story
Trump to Reinstate 8,000 Military Members Fired Over COVID-19 Vaccine With Full Back Pay
Jan 20, 2025, 05:34 PM
President Donald Trump, in his inaugural address, announced plans to reinstate military service members who were discharged for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Trump stated that he would issue an executive order this week to bring back these approximately 8,000 troops with full back pay. This move is part of a broader set of military policy priorities outlined by Trump, which also include rebuilding the military and avoiding unnecessary wars. Trump's defense secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, has similarly criticized the dismissals and promised to apologize to and reintegrate those affected. The mandate, enforced by the Defense Department from August 2021 to January 2023, led to the discharge of about 8,000 troops. Despite the small percentage of the total military force, conservative lawmakers have argued that these dismissals impacted force readiness.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
20,001 to 30,000 • 25%
More than 30,000 • 25%
10,000 to 20,000 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Partial Rollback • 25%
Complete End • 25%
Expansion • 25%
No Change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Marines • 25%
Air Force • 25%
Navy • 25%
Army • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Compromise measures • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
10,000 to 30,000 • 25%
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30,001 to 50,000 • 25%
