Market
What will be the impact of the Russia-HTS agreement on regional military dynamics by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthens Russian influence • 25%
Weakens Russian influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
Analysis from credible international military and political analysts
Story
Russia Engages HTS Rebels to Secure Tartus and Khmeimim Bases Post-Assad
Dec 13, 2024, 12:08 AM
Following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia has initiated talks with the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now controls power in Syria, to secure its military presence. The discussions aim to retain control over the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base, which are crucial for Russia's military operations in the Middle East. Despite early indications that Russia might lose access to these bases, Moscow is reportedly nearing an agreement with Syria's new leadership to keep its forces stationed at these locations. The talks are described as 'constructive' by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who emphasized the importance of these bases for continuing the fight against international terrorism. Satellite imagery has shown Russian warships temporarily leaving the Tartus port, suggesting Moscow is taking precautions while negotiating its future military presence in the region.
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Partial presence • 25%
Full retention • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Partial base retention • 25%
Russia loses all bases • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Russia retains key bases • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued negotiations • 25%
No agreement, negotiations abandoned • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Khmeimim • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations in the region • 25%
Escalation leading to a military conflict • 25%
Increased military tensions in the region • 25%
No significant change in regional security • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%