Market
What will be HTS's stance on Russian military presence by December 31, 2025?
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Syrian•Russia•Moscow•HTS•Syria•Tartus•Khmeimim Air Base•Latakia•Russian•Mikhail Bogdanov•Middle East•Assad
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Opposed • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Statements from HTS representatives or credible international news agencies
Story
Russia Negotiates with HTS to Keep Tartus and Khmeimim Bases Post-Assad
Dec 13, 2024, 10:27 AM
Following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia is actively seeking to maintain its military presence in the country. Moscow has established direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most powerful rebel group in Syria, to negotiate the preservation of its two key military bases: the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has expressed optimism about the constructive nature of these talks, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the fight against international terrorism. The discussions aim to ensure the safety of diplomats and other foreigners in Syria, and to maintain order. Russia's engagement with HTS comes as it faces a potential loss of prestige in the Middle East due to Assad's ouster, prompting a pragmatic approach to secure its strategic interests in the region.
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Weakens Russian influence • 25%
Strengthens Russian influence • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No agreement, continued negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, negotiations abandoned • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial presence • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Full retention • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Russia loses all bases • 25%
Partial base retention • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Russia retains key bases • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Reduced engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Official complaints lodged • 34%
Incidents reported • 33%
Security maintained • 33%