Market
What will be the outcome of Russia's negotiations with HTS on military bases by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Official statements from Russian government or HTS, verified by credible international news agencies
Story
Russia Engages HTS Rebels to Secure Tartus and Khmeimim Bases Post-Assad
Dec 13, 2024, 12:08 AM
Following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia has initiated talks with the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now controls power in Syria, to secure its military presence. The discussions aim to retain control over the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base, which are crucial for Russia's military operations in the Middle East. Despite early indications that Russia might lose access to these bases, Moscow is reportedly nearing an agreement with Syria's new leadership to keep its forces stationed at these locations. The talks are described as 'constructive' by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who emphasized the importance of these bases for continuing the fight against international terrorism. Satellite imagery has shown Russian warships temporarily leaving the Tartus port, suggesting Moscow is taking precautions while negotiating its future military presence in the region.
View original story
Similar markets
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Khmeimim • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Agreement revoked • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Agreement finalized • 25%
No agreement, continued negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement, negotiations abandoned • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia loses both bases • 25%
Russia retains both bases • 25%
Russia retains only Hmeimim • 25%
Russia retains only Tartus • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Russia retains key bases • 25%
Russia loses all bases • 25%
Partial base retention • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Full retention of both bases • 25%
Loss of both bases • 25%
Indefinite negotiations • 25%
Retention of only one base • 25%
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%