Market
Will Russia and HTS reach a military cooperation agreement by June 30, 2025?
3
Syrian•Russia•Moscow•HTS•Syria•Tartus•Khmeimim Air Base•Latakia•Russian•Mikhail Bogdanov•Middle East•Assad
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Russian or HTS representatives or credible international news agencies
Story
Russia Negotiates with HTS to Keep Tartus and Khmeimim Bases Post-Assad
Dec 13, 2024, 10:27 AM
Following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia is actively seeking to maintain its military presence in the country. Moscow has established direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most powerful rebel group in Syria, to negotiate the preservation of its two key military bases: the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has expressed optimism about the constructive nature of these talks, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the fight against international terrorism. The discussions aim to ensure the safety of diplomats and other foreigners in Syria, and to maintain order. Russia's engagement with HTS comes as it faces a potential loss of prestige in the Middle East due to Assad's ouster, prompting a pragmatic approach to secure its strategic interests in the region.
View original story
Similar markets
Agreement reached • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Russia loses all bases • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Russia retains key bases • 25%
Partial base retention • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Partial presence • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Full retention • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthens Russian influence • 25%
Weakens Russian influence • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%