Market
What will be the outcome of Russian-HTS negotiations by June 30, 2025?
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Syrian•Russian•Syria•Tartus•Hmeimim•Latakia•Maxar•German Defense Ministry•Russia•Mikhail Bogdanov•Damascus•Mediterranean•Middle East•Africa
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full withdrawal • 25%
Partial presence • 25%
Full retention • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Official announcements from Russian or HTS representatives, or credible news sources
Story
Russia Evacuates Syrian Bases, Negotiates with Rebels to Retain Tartus and Hmeimim
Dec 13, 2024, 02:06 PM
Following the unexpected fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russian forces are withdrawing from Syria, evacuating key military bases. Large columns of Russian military vehicles, including convoys of over 150 vehicles, have been seen moving toward the naval port in Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia. Satellite imagery analyzed by Maxar shows increased activity at these bases, including the loading of equipment such as S-400 air defense systems and Ka-52 attack helicopters onto An-124 and Il-76 transport aircraft. According to reports citing a German Defense Ministry analysis, Russia is preparing for a complete evacuation of its military bases in Syria. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov stated that Russia has established direct contacts with the political committee of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group now in control of Damascus, in an effort to negotiate the continued Russian presence at the naval port of Tartus and the Hmeimim air base. The potential loss of these bases represents a significant strategic setback for Russia's military operations in the Mediterranean and its ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa.
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Improved relations • 25%
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