Market
What will be the government's response if TikTok wins by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Appeal the decision • 25%
Introduce new legislation • 25%
No further action • 25%
Other response • 25%
Official government announcements or news reports
Story
Supreme Court Hears TikTok's First Amendment Challenge Ahead of January 19 Ban
Jan 10, 2025, 12:05 PM
On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in TikTok's challenge to a federal law signed by President Joe Biden last April, requiring the social media app to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, or face a nationwide ban effective January 19. TikTok, which has about 170 million users in the U.S., argues that the ban violates the First Amendment's free speech protections. The case, considered one of the most important of the social media age, pits national security concerns against free speech rights, as the government contends that TikTok poses a threat due to its Chinese ownership. The outcome will determine whether TikTok, used by roughly half of the U.S. population for entertainment and information, can continue operating in the United States.
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Political Resolution • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
Divestment • 25%
Continues operations without compliance • 25%
Permanently shuts down TikTok in the U.S. • 25%
Negotiates a delay or solution with U.S. government • 25%
Sells TikTok to a non-China-based company • 25%
Impose restrictions • 25%
Order shutdown • 25%
Grant permanent approval • 25%
Grant temporary extension • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
File new lawsuit • 25%
No major action • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Deal for U.S. ownership • 25%
Complete ban • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban extension • 25%
Sold to a non-US company • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Not sold, not banned • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Divestment from TikTok • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal from U.S. market • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Other • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Banned • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Ban TikTok • 25%
Restrict TikTok • 25%
Other • 25%