Market
What will be the future of TikTok U.S. if the merger fails by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Shutdown • 25%
Acquired by Another Company • 25%
Continues Independently • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or other relevant parties
Story
Perplexity AI Proposes $50 Billion Merger with TikTok U.S.; Trump May Extend Deadline
Jan 18, 2025, 08:08 PM
Perplexity AI, a relatively unknown tech firm backed by Jeff Bezos and Nvidia, has submitted an eleventh-hour bid to merge with TikTok U.S., according to sources familiar with the matter. The proposal, submitted to TikTok's parent company ByteDance, would create a new entity combining Perplexity AI, TikTok U.S., and New Capital Partners. The deal, which could value TikTok U.S. at over $50 billion, aims to prevent an impending shutdown of the popular social media platform in the United States. The merger would allow ByteDance's existing investors to retain their equity stakes and expand Perplexity AI's video presence. President Donald Trump is set to make an announcement and may grant a 90-day extension to finalize the deal.
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Operations continue as is • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. company • 25%
Legal appeal filed • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
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Continues without changes • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
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TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Banned • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
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90-day extension granted • 25%
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Acquired by U.S. entity • 25%
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Unrestricted operations • 25%
Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
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Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
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ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
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No change in ownership • 25%
Acquired by MrBeast and Jesse Tinsley's group • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
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Continues operations without change • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
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TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%