Market
What will be the outcome of Perplexity AI's merger proposal with TikTok U.S. by April 18, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Merger Completed • 25%
Merger Rejected • 25%
Merger Delayed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Perplexity AI, ByteDance, or relevant regulatory bodies
Story
Perplexity AI Proposes $50 Billion Merger with TikTok U.S.; Trump May Extend Deadline
Jan 18, 2025, 08:08 PM
Perplexity AI, a relatively unknown tech firm backed by Jeff Bezos and Nvidia, has submitted an eleventh-hour bid to merge with TikTok U.S., according to sources familiar with the matter. The proposal, submitted to TikTok's parent company ByteDance, would create a new entity combining Perplexity AI, TikTok U.S., and New Capital Partners. The deal, which could value TikTok U.S. at over $50 billion, aims to prevent an impending shutdown of the popular social media platform in the United States. The merger would allow ByteDance's existing investors to retain their equity stakes and expand Perplexity AI's video presence. President Donald Trump is set to make an announcement and may grant a 90-day extension to finalize the deal.
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Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
$60 billion to $70 billion • 25%
More than $70 billion • 25%
Less than $50 billion • 25%
$50 billion to $60 billion • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Other • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Extension granted, TikTok operates • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
No change, TikTok operates as is • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other • 25%
No acquisition occurs • 25%
Elon Musk acquires TikTok • 25%
Larry Ellison acquires TikTok • 25%
Other party acquires TikTok • 25%