Market
What will be the outcome of the Poland-Hungary diplomatic conflict by end of 2025?
2
Hungary•Marcin Romanowski•Polish•Poland•Hungarian•Warsaw•Budapest•Polish Foreign Ministry•European Commission•Romanowski•Viktor Orbán•European Arrest Warrant•Donald Tusk
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolved diplomatically • 25%
Escalated to EU intervention • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements or resolutions by either government or the European Union
Story
Hungary Grants Asylum to Former Polish Deputy Justice Minister Marcin Romanowski Amid €40 Million Fraud Allegations; Poland Summons Ambassador
Dec 20, 2024, 08:00 AM
Hungary has granted political asylum to Marcin Romanowski, a former Polish Deputy Justice Minister, who is facing allegations of misuse of public funds amounting to €40 million. The decision has led to heightened tensions between Poland and Hungary, with the Polish government labeling the act as 'hostile.' In response, Poland has summoned the Hungarian ambassador in Warsaw and recalled its own envoy from Budapest. The Polish Foreign Ministry has indicated that it may seek action from the European Commission against Hungary if it fails to meet its obligations. Romanowski's asylum request was reportedly approved by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's chief of staff, who noted that the former minister is being pursued by Polish authorities under a European Arrest Warrant. The situation reflects broader concerns regarding the rule of law in Poland under the current government led by Donald Tusk.
View original story
Similar markets
No agreement • 25%
Both ceasefire and exchange agreed • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreed • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
Italy • 25%
Other • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Exhumation agreement reached • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Critical • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No change in conflict status • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All consulates closed • 25%
Only St. Petersburg consulate closed • 25%
No further closures • 25%
Reopened consulate(s) • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Formal negotiations started • 25%
Candidate status granted • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%