Market
What retaliatory actions will Poland take against Russia by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Closure of more consulates • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
Official announcements from the Polish Foreign Ministry or credible news sources
Story
Russia to Close Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg on January 10; Expels Diplomats Amid Espionage Row
Dec 5, 2024, 03:12 PM
On December 5, Russia announced the closure of Poland's Consulate General in St. Petersburg in response to Poland's decision to shut down the Russian consulate in Poznan. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the Polish consulate would cease operations starting January 10, 2025. The closure is linked to espionage accusations. Additionally, Russia declared three diplomats from the Polish consulate in St. Petersburg as personae non gratae, requiring them to leave the country. This move escalates the diplomatic tensions between the two countries. In retaliation, Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski threatened to close all remaining Russian consular offices in Poland if "sabotage and terrorist acts continue."
View original story
Similar markets
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Missile attack on Kyiv • 25%
Increased cyber attacks • 25%
Military Strike • 25%
Cyber Attack • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic or economic sanctions • 25%
Missile strikes on Ukrainian cities • 25%
Cyber attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure • 25%
Increased ground military operations • 25%
Military support to Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Military strike • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
Other forms of retaliation • 25%
Increased airstrikes on Ukrainian cities • 25%
Cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure • 25%
Deployment of additional ground troops • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Military strike • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic measures • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%