Market
What will be the state of Russia-US diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Statements from the US State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry, and credible news reports
Story
Russia's Lavrov Warns West with 'Oreshnik' Test, Seeks Normal US Relations
Dec 5, 2024, 11:30 PM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, stated that Russia does not seek war with the United States and desires normal relations. Lavrov emphasized that Russia is prepared to use any means to defend its interests, highlighting the recent test of the 'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile as a clear signal to the West. He warned that discussions of a limited nuclear strike are an invitation to catastrophe that Russia wants to avoid. Lavrov noted that Russia and the US currently maintain dialogue mainly through prisoner exchange channels. He reiterated that Russia does not intend to destroy the Ukrainian people, whom he referred to as 'brothers and sisters,' and asserted that it is mistaken for anyone in the West to believe that Russia has no 'red lines.' He stated that Russia's conditions are 'No NATO, no military bases, no military exercises with foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.'
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
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Severance of relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
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Unclear or mixed signals • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Increased tensions • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
Normalization achieved • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Improved relations without formal treaty • 25%
New treaty signed • 25%
New diplomatic initiatives • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Status quo • 25%
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Improved relations • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
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Severed relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%