Market
Will diplomatic relations between Russia and Poland improve by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from either government indicating improved relations or credible news reports
Story
Russia to Close Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg on January 10; Expels Diplomats Amid Espionage Row
Dec 5, 2024, 03:12 PM
On December 5, Russia announced the closure of Poland's Consulate General in St. Petersburg in response to Poland's decision to shut down the Russian consulate in Poznan. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the Polish consulate would cease operations starting January 10, 2025. The closure is linked to espionage accusations. Additionally, Russia declared three diplomats from the Polish consulate in St. Petersburg as personae non gratae, requiring them to leave the country. This move escalates the diplomatic tensions between the two countries. In retaliation, Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski threatened to close all remaining Russian consular offices in Poland if "sabotage and terrorist acts continue."
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Full normalization • 25%
Partial normalization • 25%
No normalization • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Exhumation agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severance of relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened ties • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
