Market
What changes will TikTok face in the EU following the investigation by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No changes • 25%
Operational restrictions • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Ban from EU market • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok or EU
Story
EU Probes TikTok for Russian Interference in Romania's Annulled Election
Dec 17, 2024, 12:43 PM
The European Union has launched a formal investigation into TikTok over its suspected role in foreign interference in Romania's annulled presidential election. The European Commission suspects that TikTok breached the Digital Services Act by failing to adequately mitigate risks linked to election integrity. This includes allegations that the platform did not prevent foreign actors, potentially from Russia, from influencing the election outcome. The investigation follows the surprising first-round victory of independent candidate Georgescu, who is described as pro-Russia and anti-NATO/EU. Allegations also include manipulation of TikTok's algorithms and undisclosed paid promotions by influencers. If found in violation, TikTok could face significant fines, potentially up to 6% of its global turnover.
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No Action Taken • 25%
Warning Issued • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Fines Imposed • 25%
No consequences • 25%
Ban in EU • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Operational restrictions • 25%
TikTok fined • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
TikTok required to make policy changes • 25%
TikTok cleared of wrongdoing • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
Significant operational changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No changes • 25%
No issues found • 25%
Major compliance issues • 25%
Evidence of interference • 25%
Minor compliance issues • 25%
Warning issued • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fine imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
TikTok receives warning • 25%
TikTok fined • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Support for TikTok's actions • 25%
Calls for further investigation • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Major breach with penalties • 25%
Minor breach with warning • 25%
No breach found • 25%