Market
What will be the outcome of the EU's DSA investigation into TikTok by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No breach found • 25%
Minor breach with warning • 25%
Major breach with penalties • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Official statement or report from the European Commission
Story
EU Investigates TikTok Under DSA for Russian Interference in Romania's Cancelled Presidential Election
Dec 17, 2024, 11:32 AM
The European Commission has launched a formal investigation into TikTok over allegations of Russian interference in Romania's presidential election, which led to the cancellation of the second round. Independent candidate Călin Georgescu, considered pro-Russian, unexpectedly won the first round, raising concerns about an orchestrated disinformation campaign on TikTok. The investigation centers on suspected breaches of the Digital Services Act (DSA), specifically TikTok's obligation to assess and mitigate systemic risks linked to election integrity. This marks the first time TikTok is being investigated under the DSA for election interference, posing a significant test for the EU's new social media regulation rules.
View original story
Similar markets
No action taken • 25%
TikTok fined • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok receives warning • 25%
Evidence of interference • 25%
Minor compliance issues • 25%
No issues found • 25%
Major compliance issues • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Fines Imposed • 25%
Warning Issued • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Violation found but no fine • 25%
No violation found • 25%
Violation found with fine • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
TikTok fined • 25%
TikTok required to make policy changes • 25%
TikTok cleared of wrongdoing • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Operational restrictions • 25%
Ban in EU • 25%
No consequences • 25%
Not Guilty of Manipulation • 25%
Guilty of Manipulation • 25%
Investigation Inconclusive • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Fine imposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Warning issued • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No action taken • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fine imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Warning issued • 25%