Market
Will TikTok be found in violation of the DSA for Romanian election interference by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official ruling or statement from the European Commission
Story
EU Probes TikTok for Russian Interference in Romania's Annulled Election
Dec 17, 2024, 12:43 PM
The European Union has launched a formal investigation into TikTok over its suspected role in foreign interference in Romania's annulled presidential election. The European Commission suspects that TikTok breached the Digital Services Act by failing to adequately mitigate risks linked to election integrity. This includes allegations that the platform did not prevent foreign actors, potentially from Russia, from influencing the election outcome. The investigation follows the surprising first-round victory of independent candidate Georgescu, who is described as pro-Russia and anti-NATO/EU. Allegations also include manipulation of TikTok's algorithms and undisclosed paid promotions by influencers. If found in violation, TikTok could face significant fines, potentially up to 6% of its global turnover.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful collaboration • 25%
No collaboration • 25%
Partial success • 25%
TikTok found culpable • 33%
Inconclusive findings • 34%
TikTok cleared of wrongdoing • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Guilty of Manipulation • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Investigation Inconclusive • 25%
Not Guilty of Manipulation • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Charged with legal action • 25%
No legal consequences • 25%
Receive fines • 25%