Market
How will Iran respond to potential U.S. or Israeli military action?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Acceleration of nuclear program • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or credible news agencies
Story
Trump Considers Airstrikes, Supplying Bunker-Busters to Israel to Halt Iran's Nuclear Program
Dec 13, 2024, 09:38 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a range of options to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including the possibility of preemptive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities or transferring 'bunker-buster' bombs to Israel, according to multiple reports citing sources close to his transition team. Advisers to Trump are concerned that economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts are insufficient to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions and are evaluating more aggressive measures, including military action. The Wall Street Journal reported that the military-strike option is now under serious review, marking a potential shift from longstanding U.S. policy of using diplomacy and sanctions to deter Iran's nuclear program. Trump has also reportedly expressed concern to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran might achieve nuclear capability during his term. This development comes amid rising tensions over Iran's nuclear activities and regional behavior.
View original story
Similar markets
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Increased nuclear activity • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase military drills • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase in nuclear development • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Support for Israel • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Sanctions against Israel • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Military support to Houthis • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased support to Houthis • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Direct military action • 25%