Market
Will the U.S. announce a new policy towards Iran by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official U.S. government press release or credible news reports
Story
Trump Considers Former Intelligence Chief Richard Grenell for Iran Envoy Role
Dec 12, 2024, 02:17 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief and ex-U.S. Ambassador to Germany, as a special envoy for Iran. This consideration comes from sources familiar with the transition plans, although no final decisions have been made on personnel or strategy regarding Iran. Grenell's potential role would involve handling U.S. policy towards Iran, a position of significant importance given the current geopolitical climate.
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Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No major policy change • 25%
Preemptive strikes • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
General support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Complete policy overhaul • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
