Market
Will there be a change in leadership or policy stance in Israel or Hamas by the end of 2025?
2
Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•Israel•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Trump•Biden•Israeli attacks
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Policy shift by Israel • 25%
Policy shift by Hamas • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Israel or Hamas or reports from major news outlets
Story
Netanyahu: U.S. Backs Israel's Return to Gaza War, Trump to Resume Military Supplies
Jan 18, 2025, 08:30 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that both U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have assured their full backing for Israel to resume military action in Gaza if Hamas violates the terms of the ceasefire and prisoner swap agreement. The agreement, brokered by the U.S., includes a phased negotiation process, with the second phase focusing on further prisoner exchanges and security guarantees. Netanyahu emphasized that any breach of the agreement would lead to a resumption of intense fighting, with the U.S. providing military and diplomatic support. He also stated that Trump has committed to resuming military supplies that were previously halted under the Biden administration. Netanyahu attributed the deal to Israel's military successes and reiterated that Hamas would bear full responsibility for any violations. The agreement follows over 15 months of Israeli attacks on Gaza, which have resulted in more than 46,000 deaths. Negotiations for the second phase are set to begin after the first phase, which lasts 42 days.
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Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant policy shift • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in both • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
Change in military policy • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Other leadership outcome • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Qatar leads further negotiations • 25%
Neither leads further negotiations • 25%
Joint Qatar-U.S. negotiations • 25%
U.S. leads further negotiations • 25%
Other major change • 25%
Prime Minister replaced • 25%
Finance Minister replaced • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Both leaders replaced • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Economic development focus • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%