Market
Status of Israel-Hamas ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire remains intact • 25%
Ceasefire partially violated • 25%
Ceasefire fully violated • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor conflicts • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflicts • 25%
New peace agreement reached • 25%
Official announcements from both parties, major international news outlets
Story
Israel and Hamas Begin Ceasefire; Hamas Releases Three Israeli Hostages after 471 Days, Israel Frees 90 Palestinian Prisoners
Jan 20, 2025, 01:25 AM
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has begun in Gaza after a delay, as Hamas released the names of three Israeli female hostages to be freed. The first three hostages, who were held for 471 days, have been released by Hamas and have arrived in Israel, reuniting with their mothers in tearful reunions. They are the first of 33 hostages expected to be freed during the initial phase of the deal. In exchange, Israel has released 90 Palestinian prisoners, all women and minors. This exchange marks the start of a long-awaited truce aimed at ending over 15 months of war between Israel and Hamas, with a gradual release of hostages and prisoners expected over the next several weeks.
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Mutual agreement to extend • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire broken by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
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Ceasefire violated by Palestinian factions • 25%
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New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
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Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
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Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
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Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
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Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
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