Market
Primary Reason for Ceasefire Break Between Israel and Hamas Before End of February 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas Actions • 25%
Israeli Actions • 25%
External Influence • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from international news agencies and statements from both parties involved
Story
Israel Strikes Gaza Location of Female Hostage Set for Release in First Phase of Ceasefire, Hamas Claims
Jan 16, 2025, 02:53 PM
Following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement, the Israeli military reportedly targeted a location in Gaza where a female hostage, scheduled for release in the first phase of the deal, was being held, according to Abu Obaida, the military spokesperson for Hamas's Al-Qassam Brigades. The strike occurred shortly after the ceasefire was declared, and Hamas has warned that any further aggression at this stage could jeopardize the release of hostages. The incident has been reported across various media outlets, with Hamas not providing evidence to support its claim, leading some to suggest it could be part of psychological warfare by Hamas's military wing.
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Technical issues • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
External interference • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%