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Outcome of U.S.-Russia relations over Ukraine by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased sanctions by U.S. • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. and Russian governments, major news outlets
Story
Kremlin Open to 'Mutually Respectful' Dialogue with U.S. Amid Trump's Sanctions Threats Over Ukraine
Jan 23, 2025, 11:18 AM
The Kremlin has expressed readiness for a 'mutually respectful' dialogue with the United States, following threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose new sanctions and tariffs on Russia if it does not agree to end the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that there is nothing new in Trump's threats, noting that during Trump's first term, he frequently used sanctions against Russia. Peskov emphasized that Russia remains open to an 'equal dialogue', similar to the interactions between Presidents Putin and Trump during Trump's first presidency, but has not yet received any signals from Washington indicating a willingness to resume talks. Trump's recent social media post urged Russia to settle the conflict in Ukraine, warning of severe economic measures if no agreement is reached.
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Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Peace settlement achieved • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia gains significant control • 25%
Ukraine regains territories • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
Decreased military aid • 25%
Withdrawal of all military aid • 25%
No change in military aid • 25%
Successful peace agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
Partial agreement on conflict resolution • 25%
Summit canceled • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No significant agreements • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%