Market
Outcome of Colombia-U.S. deportation flight negotiations by end of 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, flights resume unilaterally • 25%
Flights remain suspended • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Colombian or U.S. government or major international news outlets
Story
Colombian President Petro Bans U.S. Military Deportation Flights, Demands Dignified Treatment Amid Trump's Immigration Policy
Jan 26, 2025, 12:21 PM
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has banned U.S. planes carrying deported Colombian migrants from entering the country, citing the need for the U.S. to treat migrants with dignity rather than as criminals. Petro's statement comes in response to the U.S. government's plan under President Donald Trump to deport undocumented immigrants daily using military aircraft. Petro emphasized that the U.S. must establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before Colombia will accept them back. This move is part of a broader context of U.S. immigration policy changes, including the declaration of a national emergency at the southern border and the reactivation of the 'Remain in Mexico' program.
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Flights remain suspended • 25%
Flights resume without new protocols • 25%
Flights resume with new protocols • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Agreement fully honored • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Agreement breached • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Protests or objections • 25%
Continued acceptance • 25%
Request for new negotiations • 25%
Termination of agreement • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Civilian flights only • 25%
Military flights accepted • 25%
Protocol established • 25%
Colombia accepts deportation flights • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
U.S. lifts visa suspension without compliance • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Agreement honored without issues • 25%
Agreement terminated • 25%
Major disputes lead to sanctions • 25%
Minor disputes resolved • 25%
