Market
What will be the status of Syrian leadership by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Bashar al-Assad remains in power • 25%
New leader from Assad's party • 25%
Opposition leader takes power • 25%
Interim government • 25%
Official announcements or verified reports from international news agencies
Story
Syrians Defy Iranian Influence, Tear Down Soleimani and Nasrallah Banner
Dec 8, 2024, 05:45 AM
Syrian residents have torn down a banner featuring images of Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, outside the Iranian embassy in Damascus. This act of defiance comes amid reports of armed protesters entering Damascus and rumors of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's departure from the country. The incident symbolizes a growing discontent with Iranian influence in Syria, as evidenced by the public's reaction to the displayed images.
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Other leadership structure • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
HTS-led government • 25%
Military-led government • 25%
Complete collapse • 25%
Regains significant power • 25%
Continues to hold some territories • 25%
Reduced to minor factions • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
Return to Previous Government Structure • 25%
Continued Conflict and Instability • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Successful Transition to Transitional Government • 25%
Assad replaced by opposition leader • 25%
Bashar Assad remains in power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Assad replaced by another regime member • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Military Junta • 25%
Other • 25%
Bashar al-Assad • 25%
Syrian Opposition Leader • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Seeks political role in another country • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Returns to political role in Syria • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Murhaf Abu Qasra • 25%
Ahmed al-Sharaa • 25%
Other • 25%
Bashar Assad • 25%