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What will be the outcome of Syria's transitional government by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Stable government formed • 25%
Ongoing political instability • 25%
Return of Assad's regime • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official announcements from the Syrian government
Story
U.S. Eases Syria Sanctions for Six Months, Allowing Energy and Remittance Transactions
Jan 6, 2025, 07:02 PM
The U.S. Treasury Department has issued a six-month general license easing some sanctions on Syria to facilitate the provision of essential services and humanitarian aid following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The license authorizes transactions related to the sale, supply, storage, or donation of energy, including petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, as well as non-commercial personal remittances to Syria. This move aims to support the Syrian people during a transitional period, with the U.S. government continuing to monitor the situation. However, the license does not allow for any financial transfers to blocked persons under existing sanctions programs, including Assad and his associates, the Syrian Central Bank, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
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Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New government formed • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Government led by opposition forces • 25%
Inclusive government with opposition • 25%
Government led by former regime members • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued Conflict and Instability • 25%
Successful Transition to Transitional Government • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Return to Previous Government Structure • 25%
National unity government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Pro-Iranian government • 25%
Pro-Western government • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Russian government • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Military coup • 25%
New interim government established • 25%
Government retains partial control • 25%
Government control unchanged • 25%
Government loses control • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%