Market
What will be the outcome of Syria's leadership transition by end of 2025?
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Travis Timmerman•American•Missouri•Damascus•Syria•Far Falastin Prison•Timmerman•Christian•Antony Blinken•Assad
Resolution / Starting Odds
Democratic government established • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Official announcements from the new Syrian government or verified news reports
Story
U.S. Citizen Travis Timmerman Freed from Syrian Prison After Assad's Fall
Dec 13, 2024, 05:29 AM
Travis Timmerman, a 29-year-old American from Missouri, was discovered wandering barefoot in Damascus, Syria, after being freed from Far Falastin Prison following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Timmerman had entered Syria seven months earlier for a Christian pilgrimage and was detained upon crossing the border. Despite the notorious reputation of the prison, Timmerman described his detention as 'not so hard,' stating he was not beaten and was allowed to go to the bathroom three times a day. His release came unexpectedly when guards fled as the regime collapsed. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that the U.S. is working to bring Timmerman home. The fall of Assad's regime has led to the release of thousands of prisoners, revealing the harsh conditions and abuses within Syria's detention facilities.
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Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Stable government formed • 25%
Ongoing political instability • 25%
Return of Assad's regime • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
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Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
No stable leadership • 25%
Pro-Iranian leadership • 25%
Independent leadership • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
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Successful Transition to Transitional Government • 25%
Return to Previous Government Structure • 25%
Continued Conflict and Instability • 25%
Syria's opposition leader • 25%
Bashar al-Assad • 25%
Military leader • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
Pro-Iran/Russia leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Turkey leadership • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
A pro-Iranian leader • 25%
A Western-backed leader • 25%
A leader from the Syrian opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
Democratic elections held • 25%
Other • 25%
Military-led government • 25%
Interim government appointed • 25%
Remains in Syria • 25%
Resigns from presidency • 25%
Other • 25%
Establishes government in exile • 25%