Market
Outcome of Next Israel-Hamas Negotiation by End of 2025?
2
Gaza Strip•Israeli military•Shin Bet•Oron Shaul•Golani•Hamas•Shejaiya•Gaza•Operation Protective Edge•Special Forces Operation•Benjamin Netanyahu•Shaul•IDF
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Prisoner Exchange Agreement • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Hamas representatives, reported by major news outlets
Story
Israeli Special Forces Recover Body of Soldier Oron Shaul Held by Hamas Since 2014
Jan 19, 2025, 06:01 AM
In a clandestine operation in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military, in collaboration with the Shin Bet, successfully recovered the body of Staff Sgt. Oron Shaul, a Golani soldier who was just 20 years old when he was killed and captured by Hamas during a battle in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza on July 20, 2014, during Operation Protective Edge. His body had been held by Hamas for nearly a decade. The Special Forces Operation was conducted before a ceasefire came into effect, as announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who expressed his condolences to Shaul's family and congratulated the Shin Bet and IDF for their efforts.
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Only Ceasefire • 25%
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Extended ceasefire • 25%
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Hostage Release Only • 25%
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Partial Agreement • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
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Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
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No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
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Hostage deal only • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
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