Market
Outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Long-term peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Official statements and credible news reports
Story
Hamas Releases Four Israeli Female Soldiers in Exchange for 200 Palestinian Prisoners
Jan 25, 2025, 09:33 AM
On Saturday, Hamas militants released four Israeli female soldiers held captive since the October 7, 2023 attack, as part of a ceasefire agreement with Israel. The women, who were taken from Israel’s Nahal Oz military base near Gaza during the Hamas-led Operation Al-Aqsa, were paraded in front of a crowd at Palestine Square in Gaza City before being handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross. In exchange, Israel is expected to release approximately 200 Palestinian prisoners. This marks the second exchange under the ceasefire deal, following the release of three Israeli women and 90 Palestinian prisoners on the first day.
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