Market
Outcome of Debate on Presidential Powers in South Korea by End of 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Oversight • 25%
No Change • 25%
Reduced Powers • 25%
Other • 25%
Official records from the South Korean National Assembly
Story
South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol Declares Martial Law on December 3, 2024, First Since 1987 Amid Political Turmoil
Jan 13, 2025, 04:15 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on December 3, 2024, marking the first such declaration since 1987. The move, which was justified by Yoon as a response to threats from North Korea and domestic unrest, led to a chaotic standoff at the National Assembly, where opposition lawmakers rejected the declaration. Investigations into the martial law have revealed troubling links between former defense minister Kim Yong-hyun, the military, and alleged attempts to influence presidential election outcomes. Following a failed impeachment motion against him, President Yoon faces increasing scrutiny over his decision, as allegations of corruption against the First Lady further complicate his presidency. The aftermath of the brief martial law has ignited intense debate regarding the concentration of presidential power and the involvement of military and intelligence agencies in politics, with expectations of closer oversight and continued political turmoil in South Korea.
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Martial law escalates to civil unrest • 25%
Martial law leads to political resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Martial law lifted peacefully • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other significant political changes • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Resignation and snap election • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim President • 25%
Newly elected President • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
Other • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Government change • 25%
Other • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol • 25%
Choi Sang-mok • 25%
Park Chong-jun • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Government overthrown • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
New Interim Leader Appointed • 25%
Acting President Stays • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Early Elections Held • 25%
