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Outcome of China-U.S. TikTok negotiations by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok remains operational with conditions • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok, Chinese or U.S. government agencies
Story
China Signals Willingness to Work with Trump on Deal to Keep TikTok in the U.S., Reports WSJ
Jan 20, 2025, 01:40 PM
China has indicated its willingness to cooperate with Donald Trump to facilitate the continued operation of TikTok in the United States. Multiple reports confirm that China will not obstruct a potential deal aimed at keeping the popular social media platform active in the U.S. market. The Wall Street Journal was among the first to report on this development, highlighting China's shift in stance regarding TikTok's future in the country.
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No Deal Reached • 25%
Majority U.S. Ownership • 25%
Majority Chinese Ownership • 25%
50-50 Joint Ownership • 25%
Further negotiations ongoing • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal rejected by China • 25%
Deal approved by China • 25%
Other • 25%
Operations continue with restrictions • 25%
Operations continue without changes • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Sale to US company • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Partnership with U.S. company • 25%
Change of control • 25%
Sale of U.S. operations • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
Banned • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Oracle and Microsoft take full control • 25%
ByteDance retains significant control • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Operational changes agreed • 25%