Market
What will be the outcome of negotiations between Trump's administration and ByteDance by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Operational changes agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from the Trump administration or ByteDance.
Story
Trump Urges Supreme Court to Pause Jan. 19 TikTok Ban for Negotiated Resolution
Dec 27, 2024, 10:26 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has filed an amicus brief urging the U.S. Supreme Court to pause a law that would ban the TikTok social media platform on January 19 unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. In the brief filed Friday, Trump requested the justices delay the ban to allow his incoming administration to "pursue a political resolution" that addresses national security concerns while preventing a nationwide shutdown of the popular app. He cited his "consummate dealmaking expertise" as essential in negotiating a solution. The move comes hours after President Biden's Justice Department filed its main brief to the Supreme Court regarding the TikTok ban. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on January 10. Unless blocked, the ban would take effect the day before Trump's inauguration.
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Successful Deal • 25%
Ongoing Negotiations • 25%
Temporary Extension Granted • 25%
No Deal, TikTok Banned • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains operational with conditions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Majority U.S. Ownership • 25%
50-50 Joint Ownership • 25%
No Deal Reached • 25%
Majority Chinese Ownership • 25%
TikTok divests U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains operational with no changes • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Sold to another buyer • 25%
Sold to MrBeast • 25%
Not sold, not banned • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Legal challenge delaying divestiture • 25%
No divestiture • 25%
Divestiture announced but not completed • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No divestment • 25%
Complete divestment • 25%
Partial divestment • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
