Market
Outcome of TikTok takeover negotiations by February 25, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Oracle and Microsoft take full control • 25%
ByteDance retains significant control • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Oracle, Microsoft, ByteDance, or TikTok
Story
Trump Negotiates TikTok Takeover by Oracle, Microsoft; ByteDance Keeps Stake
Jan 26, 2025, 01:52 AM
According to a report by NPR, the Trump administration is negotiating a deal for Oracle and U.S. investors, including Microsoft, to take control of TikTok's global operations. Under the proposed plan, ByteDance, TikTok's China-based owner, would retain a minority stake, while Oracle would oversee the app's algorithm, data collection, and software updates. The White House is involved in the negotiations, with President Trump stating that a decision on the future of the app will likely be made within 30 days. ByteDance reportedly values TikTok at over $200 billion. This plan is reminiscent of a deal proposed in 2020 that ultimately fell through.
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Other party purchases TikTok • 25%
Larry Ellison purchases TikTok • 25%
Neither purchases TikTok • 25%
Elon Musk purchases TikTok • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal approved by China • 25%
Deal rejected by China • 25%
Further negotiations ongoing • 25%
Sale to US company • 25%
No change • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Microsoft acquires • 25%
Another company acquires • 25%
No sale, TikTok banned • 25%
No sale, TikTok not banned • 25%
Acquired by Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Larry Ellison acquires TikTok • 25%
Elon Musk acquires TikTok • 25%
No acquisition occurs • 25%
Other party acquires TikTok • 25%
Other • 25%
Operations continue without changes • 25%
Operations continue with restrictions • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Sold to another buyer • 25%
Remains under ByteDance ownership • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's company X • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
Deal Rejected • 25%
No Decision • 25%
Deal Modified • 25%
Deal Approved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok sold to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains operational with conditions • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%