Market
Cuba's primary response to US terrorism designation by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased economic partnerships with other countries • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official statements or actions from the Cuban government
Story
On First Day, Trump Reinstates Cuba as Terrorism Sponsor, Revokes Biden's Decision
Jan 21, 2025, 12:55 AM
On Monday, United States President Donald Trump revoked former President Joe Biden's January 14 decision to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. In one of his first executive actions since taking office, Trump reinstated Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing Biden's last-minute move before leaving office. The White House announced that Trump rescinded 78 decisions made by Biden, including the Cuba delisting. The inclusion on the list imposes measures such as economic sanctions and restrictions on foreign aid. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the move as an act of arrogance and an attempt to strengthen the economic blockade against Cuba.
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Strengthening ties with US adversaries • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement with US • 25%
Increased economic cooperation with Russia/China • 25%
Recall of Cuban ambassador to the U.S. • 25%
No significant diplomatic action • 25%
Formal complaint to the United Nations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Positive response from EU • 25%
Negative response from Latin America • 25%
Positive response from Latin America • 25%
Negative response from EU • 25%
Removal blocked by Congress • 25%
Removal confirmed and sustained • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Removal confirmed but reversed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reversal by Trump administration • 25%
U.S.-Cuba relations improve • 25%
Ties to Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Harboring fugitives • 25%
Support for FARC • 25%