Market
Cuba releases additional political prisoners by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Cuban government or international human rights organizations
Story
Trump Reinstates Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism on First Day, Undoing Biden's Vatican-Brokered Deal
Jan 21, 2025, 01:24 AM
On his first day in office, President Donald Trump reinstated Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing an executive order issued by former President Joe Biden just last week. Biden had removed Cuba from the list as part of a Vatican-brokered deal to facilitate the release of 553 political prisoners in Cuba. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel denounced the reinstatement as an act of 'arrogance and disdain for the truth,' asserting that Trump's objective is to continue the economic war against Cuba for purposes of domination. The move comes as Marco Rubio was confirmed as Secretary of State, who had previously expressed no doubt about Cuba's status as a terrorism sponsor.
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All prisoners released • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
No prisoners released • 25%
Some prisoners released • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New trials or retrials • 25%
Legal proceedings closed • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
New arrests made • 25%