Market
What will be the leadership change in Ukraine by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President • 25%
New President from Opposition Party • 25%
New President from Zelenskyy's Party • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements or election results reported by reputable news sources
Story
UK's Starmer Signs Historic 100-Year Partnership with Ukraine, Pledging Century-Long Security and Economic Recovery Support
Jan 16, 2025, 05:23 AM
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has arrived in Ukraine to sign a historic 100-year partnership agreement with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This visit, Starmer's first to Ukraine since becoming prime minister in July, comes just days before Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president. The agreement aims to deepen the bond between the UK and Ukraine across defense, science, energy, and trade sectors. Starmer has pledged to help guarantee Ukraine's security for a century, emphasizing the strategic failure of Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to isolate Kyiv. The partnership includes commitments to maritime security and technology projects, such as drones, and is part of broader efforts to support Ukraine's post-war economic recovery and security. Starmer announced £40 million for Ukraine's economic recovery, in addition to the UK's previous commitment of 12.8 billion pounds in aid. The visit occurs amidst uncertainty over future U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump's administration.
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Other outcome • 25%
New leadership through elections • 25%
New leadership through other means • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Other • 25%
New candidate emerges • 25%
Opposition candidate wins • 25%
Zelensky reelected • 25%
Government maintains current status • 25%
Government undergoes significant restructuring • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Government collapses • 25%
Volodymyr Zelensky • 25%
Other • 25%
Dmytro Kuleba • 25%
Denys Shmyhal • 25%
Loss of territory • 25%
Stalemate with current borders • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Other • 25%
Zelenskyy recognized • 25%
Recognition contingent on election • 25%
No leader recognized • 25%
New leader recognized • 25%
Decrease military support • 25%
Push for diplomatic solution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase military support • 25%
Annexed by Russia • 25%
Other status • 25%
Divided into regions controlled by different entities • 25%
Independent sovereign state • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
Decreased military aid • 25%
No change • 25%
No change in military aid • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
Decreased military aid • 25%
Withdrawal of all military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Ukraine gains territory • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
Lutsenko reinstated • 25%
Tarnavskyi remains in command • 25%
New commander appointed • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%