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Impact of Witkoff's mission on Trump's Middle East policy by Jan 20, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
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Negative impact • 25%
Analysis from political experts, reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff Meets Qatari, Israeli Leaders for Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Release
Dec 4, 2024, 09:14 PM
Donald Trump's incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has met with the Prime Ministers of Qatar and Israel in an effort to broker a ceasefire deal in Gaza before Trump's inauguration in January. According to sources briefed on the talks, Qatar has resumed its role as a key mediator in the Gaza conflict, with expectations that the Hamas negotiating team will return to Doha to facilitate further discussions. This diplomatic push also aims to secure the release of hostages.
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Other diplomatic goals • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Sustained ceasefire • 25%
Hostage release • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Reassigned to a different role • 25%
Role eliminated • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Continues as special envoy • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
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Peace agreement signed • 25%
Focus on Israel-Palestine conflict • 25%
Other focus • 25%
Focus on Iran • 25%
Focus on Syria • 25%
Increases tensions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Leads to further peace agreements • 25%
Facilitated ceasefire • 25%
Facilitated hostage release • 25%
Facilitated both • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Security and defense • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Diplomatic relations • 25%
Economic cooperation • 25%
No major action • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic initiative • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Military strategy • 25%
Economic aid • 25%
Support settlement expansion • 25%
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No clear policy • 25%
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Increased stability • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unpredictable outcomes • 25%