Market
What impact will Trump's mediation efforts have on Middle East peace talks by the end of 2025?
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Donald Trump•Truth Social•Gaza•Romi Gonen•Supernova•Emily Damari•British•Israeli•Kibbutz Kfar Aza•Doron Steinbrecher•Kfar Aza•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•United States•Qatar•Egypt•Trump•Middle East•Steve Witkoff
Resolution / Starting Odds
Leads to further peace agreements • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increases tensions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international news agencies or official statements from involved parties
Story
Trump Announces Release of 33 Hostages from Gaza to Begin Today, Three Young Women First
Jan 19, 2025, 01:04 PM
Former President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the release of hostages from Gaza is set to begin today, with three young women being the first to be freed. The hostages include Romi Gonen, aged 24, kidnapped at the Supernova festival; Emily Damari, 28, with dual British and Israeli citizenship, abducted from Kibbutz Kfar Aza; and Doron Steinbrecher, 31, a veterinary nurse also taken from Kfar Aza. The agreement between Israel and the Hamas group involves the release of 33 hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, alongside the entry of humanitarian aid into the region. The negotiations, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, were finalized after delays due to Hamas's slow provision of hostage names. The ceasefire, initially scheduled for 8:30 AM local time, started almost three hours later. Hamas has attributed the ceasefire agreement to the efforts of Trump's new administration and its special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. The agreement comes after 15 months of war and follows Trump's election victory, which he claims facilitated the deal.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unpredictable outcomes • 25%
Increased stability • 25%
No Progress • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Partial Resolution • 25%
Complete Resolution • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No change • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Other • 25%
One-state solution • 25%
Two-state solution • 25%
Ceasefire without solution • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Successful, ceasefire holds • 25%
Partially successful, limited progress • 25%
Unsuccessful, ceasefire collapses • 25%
Other • 25%
Active mediator • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Supportive role • 25%
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%