Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's divestiture requirement by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful divestiture • 25%
Nationwide ban enforced • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok, ByteDance, or credible news reports
Story
Supreme Court Upholds Law Requiring TikTok to Divest from ByteDance by Sunday or Face U.S. Ban
Jan 17, 2025, 03:04 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld a law that requires TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by Sunday or face a nationwide ban. The unanimous, unsigned decision clears the way for the enforcement of the statute, which was passed with bipartisan support in Congress last April. The court concluded that the law does not violate the First Amendment rights of TikTok and its users, despite arguments from the company and content creators that it infringes on their free speech rights. The decision comes just days before the law is set to take effect, potentially leading to TikTok's shutdown in the U.S. if no divestiture occurs.
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Extension granted • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Divestment completed • 33%
Ban implemented • 33%
Deadline extended • 34%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Divestiture announced but not completed • 25%
No divestiture • 25%
Legal challenge delaying divestiture • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Not sold and banned • 25%
Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court blocks order • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Supreme Court upholds order • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Complete divestment • 25%
Partial divestment • 25%
No divestment • 25%
Sold to another party • 25%
Sold to McCourt and O’Leary • 25%
Not sold • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Sold to another buyer • 25%
Not sold, not banned • 25%
Not sold, banned • 25%
Sold to MrBeast • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Other • 25%