Market
How will international allies respond to U.S. military policy changes by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Critical • 25%
No official response • 25%
Statements from government officials of allied countries or credible news outlets
Story
Trump Signs Five Orders Banning Trans Troops, Directs 'Iron Dome' for Military
Jan 27, 2025, 11:47 PM
President Donald Trump has signed five executive orders on Monday that ban transgender individuals from serving in the U.S. military and eliminate Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs within the armed forces. The orders direct Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to begin construction of an 'Iron Dome' missile defense system for the country and to end Critical Race Theory training for service members. The actions also reinstate military personnel who were discharged for refusing COVID-19 vaccine mandates. This move reverses the 2016 policy enacted under President Barack Obama that allowed transgender troops to serve openly.
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Similar markets
Neutral • 25%
Support • 25%
No response • 25%
Condemn • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Strengthened NATO ties • 25%
New military alliances • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Minimal response • 25%
Strong condemnation • 25%
Calls for renegotiation • 25%
Other • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New military alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances weakened • 25%
No significant policy change • 25%
Increase in military presence in Indo-Pacific • 25%
Other response • 25%
New military alliances • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Diplomatic agreements • 25%
Improved alliances • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased integration • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased support for Iran • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New alliance against Israel • 25%
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Critical • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Negative • 33%
Positive • 33%
Neutral • 34%