Market
Conflict Escalation Between Israel and Gaza by Mid-2025
2
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps•IRGC•Esmail Qaani•Gaza•Israel•Lebanese•Qaani•Resistance Axis•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major news agencies and official military statements
Story
IRGC Commander at 1:00 PM Declares Gaza Ceasefire Israel's Greatest Failure After 15 Months of Conflict
Jan 19, 2025, 08:57 AM
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander, Esmail Qaani, announced at 1:00 PM that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza represents the greatest failure for Israel. The announcement, made during a ceremony honoring medical staff who treated Lebanese victims of an explosion, highlighted that the ceasefire was imposed on Israel after 15 months of conflict. Qaani described the event as one of the most significant days in history, emphasizing the resilience of the Resistance Axis. The ceasefire marks the culmination of negotiations that incorporated all demands previously made by Palestinian representatives.
View original story
Similar markets
Escalation • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Escalation • 25%
UN sanctions against Israel • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
UN sanctions against Hamas • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Unchanged threat • 25%
Increased threat • 25%
No threat • 25%
Reduced threat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%