Loading...
Market
Impact of Economic Issues on Polls by November 1, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trump gains ≥ 5% • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Biden gains ≥ 5% • 33%
Economic Polls
Story
Polls Show Biden and Trump in Tight Race for 2024 Election, Trump 50% to Biden 49%
Jun 9, 2024, 03:04 PM
Recent polls indicate a tight race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 US Presidential Election. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump leads nationally with 50% to Biden's 49%, while in battleground states, Biden holds a slight edge with 50% to Trump's 49%. Post-conviction surveys show Trump leading or tied in key swing states, despite his 34 convictions in a hush-money trial. An Emerson poll shows Biden at 45% and Trump at 46%. Economic factors play a significant role, with many voters believing Trump would handle the economy better than Biden. A new poll reveals economic hardship from higher prices is severely damaging Biden's prospects, while boosting Trump's comeback. Additionally, a significant portion of Biden's supporters are motivated primarily by opposition to Trump rather than support for Biden himself. Betting markets, with a $155m pot, have Trump at 56%.
View original story
Similar markets
Net Positive Effect • 33%
Net Negative Effect • 33%
No Significant Change • 33%
Significant increase • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Decrease • 33%
Increases political support for Biden • 25%
Decreases political support for Biden • 25%
No significant effect on Biden's support • 25%
Polarizes opinions further without clear support shift • 25%
Significant drop in poll numbers • 25%
No significant change in poll numbers • 25%
Increase in campaign donations • 25%
Decrease in campaign donations • 25%
Favorable • 33%
Unfavorable • 33%
Neutral/No opinion • 34%
Increase by more than 5% • 33%
Decrease by more than 5% • 33%
Remain within 5% of current levels • 34%
Trump Leads • 25%
Second Place • 25%
Third Place • 25%
Fourth Place or Lower • 25%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Increase by more than 5% • 25%
Increase by 1-5% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
Increase by more than 5% • 33%
No significant change (within 5%) • 33%
Decrease by more than 5% • 33%